American administrations have always been close to the state of Israel. Democrats and Republicans adopt more or less the same policies. Among the Gazans, little hope for change.

The presidential elections will be held in the United States on November 5. The White House will be contested between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, currently Joe Biden’s vice president. Until a few months ago, the road to the White House seemed clear for Trump, because Biden was in trouble due to his health.

But the Democrats’ move to replace him with Harris, less than 4 months before the elections, has reshuffled the cards. And the outcome of the electoral competition today is far from certain. Generally, it is domestic politics that influence the vote of Americans, in particular the economy, work and security. However, for these elections, the “geopolitical” factor could be decisive, due to the serious crisis in the Middle East that features the state of Israel, an undisputed ally of the United States regardless of the president’s political colour.

Since the beginning of the military offensive against Gaza – following the armed operation by Hamas on October 7, 2023 – the Americans have been supplying weapons to Tel Aviv and supporting it diplomatically. This despite the apparent political differences between Biden and Netanyahu in managing the conflict.

To date, according to the Hamas Health Minister, the Palestinian victims number more than 40,000, of which more than 16 thousand are children. And it is estimated that the missing under the rubble are more than 10,000. The Israeli army has destroyed 75% of Gaza’s infrastructure: hospitals, schools and water systems that
supply water to Gazans.

In the eyes of many countries and international institutions – and even some Jewish intellectuals – what is happening in Gaza is genocide. But faced with the appeal of the international community to stop the war, Netanyahu turns a deaf ear. Indeed, he is trying to extend it to the rest of the Middle East, provoking Iran.

On July 31, the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in an Israeli raid. This shows that Tel Aviv is not interested in negotiations to stop the war against Gaza because you cannot assassinate the leader of the other side with whom you are negotiating to find a solution to the conflict. But even more serious was the violation of the sovereignty of Iranian territory in defiance of international law, which Israel has never respected.

Last April, Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus. With these operations, the Netanyahu-led government aims to drag Iran into war. In this scenario, the US and its European allies would be forced to enter the conflict. In America, many Republican parliamentarians support this idea. It should be remembered that in Congress, many, both Republicans and Democrats, are financially supported by the pro-Israel lobby (AIPAC, in particular) and therefore fully support the policies of the
Israeli government.

This lobby has always influenced the presidential elections in the US. And so, it will also have a decisive role in the November elections. Netanyahu relies heavily on Zionist pressure groups. This is why the Israeli prime minister is dragging out the war against Gaza while waiting for the inauguration of the new president, hoping that it will be Trump, his great ally.

The Palestinians, instead, expect nothing positive from these elections, because they consider the US establishment to be Tel Aviv’s accomplice in the Nakba in which they have been living for 76 years. (Photo 123rf)

Mostafa El Ayoubi
Middle East Analyst