Inevitably, the Jordanian government – and the political arrangement, which has taken decades to craft in order to achieve the present equilibrium among the Jordanian tribes, the Palestinians and the religious authorities – will lose legitimacy. The Jordanian monarch, pressed with the difficult decision of having to compromise the interests of the various political actors,…
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What are the implications of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. U.S. Forces in Iraq at risk. Conflict with Iran. Instability in all region. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the elite Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) had just arrived on a flight from Syria. Seconds after he went through the exit, the…
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Syria and Iraq. The central role of the Russia in the region. The possible new nuclear deal. A peace solution in Yemen. The intensification of the street protests. President Bashar al Assad has won the war in Syria; he and the Ba’ath party shall remain in power and the West’s drive for regime change have…
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A large oil and gas deposits off the Lebanese coast. Tensions with Israel. A massive immigration crisis, pending from the Syrian civil war. On September 14, an U.S. Navy ship, in this case the destroyer, USS Ramage, docked in Lebanon’s capital Beirut. No American military vessel had performed such a maneuver since 1984 (when U.S.…
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There has never been a Kurdish State. But, there has been and still exists a Kurdish nation. The Kurds have occupied the mountains that extend from western Iran to eastern Turkey through Iraq and Syria for centuries. because political boundaries have worked that way, and there is no Kurdish nation, as such, although they have…
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There has been a tendency on the side of the mainstream media to describe this movement as a monolithic entity, and interested in adopting the model of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In fact, the Shi’a movement in Iraq is more complex, having responded almost exclusively to specific indigenous socio-economic Iraqi mechanisms. While, one of…
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As the Ba’ath increasingly dominated the State, the Communists faced greater restrictions on their activities. By the early 1980’s they had been virtually silenced. Indeed, the Ba’ath Party suppressed all secular opposition. The effect was that all political grievances were increasingly channelled through the Shiite Islamic movement. The Shi’a were poor, but well represented politically…
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Iraq, the country established on the land of the Assyrians and Babylonians of ancient Mesopotamia, is one of the most bitter fruits of the Franco-British imperialist nation-building efforts in the post-WW1 scenario that was the ‘Sykes-Picot’ Accord, signed on May 16, 1916. British, French and, to a lesser extent, Russian diplomats decided how the former…
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The Return of Palestine and A Deepening of the Shi’a-Sunni Divide. One of the clearest lenses through which to gaze into the scenarios that could develop in the Middle East in 2019 is the next Israeli legislative election. It is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2019. But Israeli officials may move the vote…
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The Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital, and its Political Context, Has Ended the Middle East Peace Process. One might be forgiven for thinking that far from shunning an interventionist foreign policy, as he promised during the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump has been conducting someone else’s ‘diplomacy’. Since his election, Trump has offered important…
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Unlike the protests of the ‘Arab Spring’, moreover, the recent protests in Iran have a political connection. President Rohani publicly declared they had valid reason to protest and the right to do so. The revolts began in Mashhad, a spiritual centre noted for its sympathies with the conservatives – as well as the shrine of…
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Whatever tensions exist between Israel, the USA and Iran, they will play out in Syria first. The strategy will focus on preventing Iran from deploying of missiles in Syria and Lebanon, aimed against Israel. In effect, Israel will consider any provocation, real or fabricated arising from Syria as being directed from Tehran. In turn, Tel…
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