Donald Trump’s protectionism, exercised with tariffs, is a piece of an ideology that sees America defending itself from those
who threaten it.

The first moves in trade policy of the new US administration are decidedly convulsive. Donald Trump threatens the BRICS with tariffs of up to 100% if they abandon the dollar. It is clear that the abandonment of the dollar as the currency of international payments has begun. And it is equally evident that Trump’s warning expresses the weakness of those who know they cannot afford those tariffs. And therefore, he shouts aloud to avert the danger.

In other words, Trump cannot increase the tariffs on China precisely because this would create a dollarization crisis. So, he makes the Chinese understand that he will not change the current state of affairs, beyond the mini tariffs of 10%, and the very negative trade balance with China, if there is not a reduction in dollar trade by China. But the Chinese, in this case, have already achieved their goal. That is, continuing to sell without too many hindrances in the United States.

The second indication is very burdensome for Trump and comes from the numbers. The American deficit in the balance of payments exceeded 3 thousand billion in 2024. The net financial position – the debts contracted by the US public and private system towards the rest of the world – is negative by 24 thousand billion dollars.

It is really difficult to understand how it can be reduced without ending essential dollarization. If not by unleashing a trade war against Europe, with devastating consequences, however, since US-EU trade still occupies 42% of the world total. US exports are concentrated in the service sector because in manufacturing the star-spangled economy
is really inefficient.

Then there is a third signal, certainly of less importance, but significant. Speculation on the price of gold has reached 2,700 dollars
an ounce: a record that indicates how little confidence there is in
the new “Golden era”.

In this scenario, President Trump’s decision to transfer illegal immigrants to the super prison of Guantanamo also plays a significant role. The images published with great pride of “repatriations” in chains are the clear expression of a narrative aimed at presenting the United States as a country threatened by a real war.

A country that therefore needs to be governed with many “executive orders” against which the various Courts must not place obstacles. After having conquered Congress, Trump wants to impose a special regime, of war, with which to lead the country. The feeling he intends to cultivate is that of an identity nationalism, based on supremacist hatred and the parallel celebration of America as the land of wealth for all.

In this sense, economic policy will be characterized by the firm will to attract capital and savings from all over the world to within the borders of the United States. Starting with financial ones.
And to increase the value of American exports to reduce dependence on foreign countries, made necessary precisely by the “war” against the US that justifies the duties.

At the same time, the Trump administration will proceed with total deregulation to allow the generation of wealth from every form of financial employment, from “popular” cryptocurrencies worth a few cents, to drilling, to artificial intelligence financed by the federal government, but also to the recovery of traditional sectors such as steel, mechanics and agriculture, attracting foreign producers and defending national production.

This entire system will find its legitimacy precisely in the encirclement that Americans are suffering. And which has been favoured by the Democrats, so guilty as to be the subject of indictment for betrayal of national interests. In this way, Trumpian capitalism demonstrates that it needs a war to legitimize its vision.

This is not a war fought around the world, but built, through a strongly ideological vision and story, within the country. The war of identity nationalism is governed by hatred against the “besiegers”, starting with illegal migrants and diversity. Therefore, a war to be fought in the name of the formula according to which America belongs only to Americans who have the right to enrich themselves by taking over the resources of all those who surround them: populations, states or companies for which they can provide, if available for such a destination towards the United States, a market without regulations.

The duties against Europe certainly fit well into a similar messianic vision where the enemy to be struck is the liberal capitalist democracies, the true architects of the sack of the United States. In short, in the rhetoric of war, putting money into Trump’s United States means financing his war of “civilization”. In the name of a brutal sort of capitalism and a model for right-wing parties around the world.

The president, however, seems to have little regard for a cumbersome actor. China’s reaction to Trump’s mini-tariffs was very clear. After initially showing caution towards the measure announced by the new tenant of the White House, the Chinese leaders responded with extreme harshness, even if they moved the clock hands to February 10.

From this perspective, it is clear that China wants to make the United States, but above all some of its interlocutors, understand its real strength. The measures announced in fact plan to hit the Trump presidency in two strategic sectors, liquefied natural gas and oil with duties between 10 and 15%, and technology with the blocking of exports of some rare minerals. These measures imply an explicit message consisting of the strengthening of China’s ties with Russia on the energy supply side and the intention to make the development of the Artificial Intelligence sector extremely complex.

The immediate objective, then, is to create tension in the American stock markets whose insane speculative financialization makes them sensitive to every movement. Any Chinese duties are capable of immediately triggering waves of cut-price sell-offs which are difficult to manage, while at the same time favouring the rise of the Shenzen price lists. Unlike Europe, China has such strength and “credibility” that it now dictates the trends of financial “markets” where, paradoxically, its own capital is not even present. Trump must be very careful or the bubble could burst in his hands.

Alessandro Volpi/Valori